Djokovic, Nadal jostle for Year End Number 1 position

After losing his No 1 spot to Rafael Nadal in October, Novak Djokovic promised to make a final push to reclaim the spot and secure the coveted Year End No 1 position for the third time in his career. I didn’t agree because I felt he had too many points to defend. Also, he initially didn’t enter to play in Paris. However, things changed quickly and as it stands, if he beats David Ferrer today at the BNP Paribas Masters Finals in Paris, he will have more points than Rafael Nadal.

	Current points*	Djokovic wins BNP	Ferrer wins BNP
Rafael Nadal	11,670	12,030 (+360)	12,030 (+360)
Novak Djokovic	11,120	12,110 (990)	11,710 (+590)

*Correct at 2 Nov 2013. Djokovic got 10points at this event last year.

UPDATE: However, according to new rules, he'll also lose the 1,500 points he won last year on monday, instead of at the end of the tournament as is normal for other ATP events.

Back in October, Novak Djokovic apparently realised what most people didn’t: Nadal plays poorly in Indoor events. His win ratio in outdoor events is 85.9% while his record in indoor events stands at 65.9%. He has won only two indoor titles in his career (source: ATPWorldTour.Com). Also, most post-USOpen events are on hard surface, theoretically Nadal’s worst surface (Nadal’s performance on hard court this year seems to have made people forget this). And what more, Novak is the best hard court player out there.

But reclaiming World Number 1 is one thing, securing the Year End No 1 accolade is another. That is Novak’s ultimate target but that is where the odds are stacked up against him.

There is only one event left for the year, the season-closing annual ATP World  Tour Finals in London featuring the Top 8 players in the world. There are 1,500 points at stake, but Novak won the event last year and will therefore not add to his points. He could even lose some! (I explained how it works here).

Therefore, the only realistic chance Novak Djokovic has of finishing the year as No 1 (if he beats David Ferrer today) is if wins all his matches in London while hoping Nadal loses all his. Even though the event will be on hard court and indoor (yeah, two bad combinations for Nadal, I know), Nadal has been drawn against players against whom he has terribly lopsided winning records. He is in Group A alongside David Ferrer (20-5), Stanislas Wawrinka (11-0) and Tomas Berdych (16-3).

This is how the 1,500 points are won: a win in each group game fetches 200 points, a semi final win gives a further 400 points and the Champion gets 500 more points. Even if Djokovic wins five matches in London and his three matches at the Davis Cup later in the year, he still have to hope Nadal doesn't get two wins in London.

The only scenario I see here is Nadal winning at least 2 matches, getting beaten in the semi final but still finishing the year as World Number One. Sorry Novak, try again next year.