Looking at Okonjo-Iweala's 40 million car owners claim

I wrote this article for The Scoop and it was published on November 5, 2014. See here


So this morning I read a statement credited to the Minister of Finance and the Coordinating Minister for the Economy, Mrs Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, that 40 million Nigerians are now comfortable enough to have cars due to ‘concrete steps’ taken by the government. She was speaking in Abuja at the Presidential Public Affairs Forum organized by the Office of the Senior Special Assistant to the President on Public Affairs, Doyin Okupe.


You see, it’s the norm for government officials to throw around barely plausible figures so long as they are not challenged by citizens. The Nigerian government has perfected this act – the more scary the figure is, the more comfortable the government is to use it. I was a little idle this morning so I thought to test the accuracy of this figure before it becomes another ‘notorious fact’ (word credit: Pastor Wendell Simlin, a.k.a Reno Omokri).


I googled “Nigeria population by age” and got this Nigeria age structure on indexmundi.com (link here http://www.indexmundi.com/nigeria/age_structure.html).
According to the site’s 2014 estimate, Nigeria’s population is divided into the following age brackets: 

Age distribution	Male	Female	Total
0-14	39,151,304	37,353,737	76,505,041
15-24	17,486,117	16,732,533	34,218,650
25-54	27,697,644	26,285,816	53,983,460
55-64	3,393,631	3,571,301	6,964,932
>65	2,621,845	2,861,826	5,483,671
	90,350,541	86,805,213	177,155,754

 

I made a little guess on what percentage of each age category is comfortable enough to own a car (strictly my own rude, unscientific guess) and got these results:

 

Age distribution	Total	% car ownership	Number
0-14	76,505,041	0%	-
15-24	34,218,650	10%	3,421,865
25-54	53,983,460	30%	16,195,038
55-64	6,964,932	30%	2,089,480
>65	5,483,671	20%	1,096,734
	177,155,754		22,803,117

Let’s say 25 million, and I have tried to look at the best case scenario based on what I believe is the condition in Lagos. I expect other states to have worse car ownership figures. 


I have no doubt in my mind that the 40 million figure given by the honourable minister is a very wild guesstimate. As I pointed out before, this is no scientific work, and is therefore open to corrections and better insights. But we need to start asking questions of public officials who are becoming too comfortable making rather wild claims, especially since mainstream journalists do not seem to realize it is their duty to so do. 


Questions will be asked as to whether car ownership should form the basis of gauging improvement in economic situation, but I suppose that is neither here nor there. I remember former President Obasanjo saying  the manner Nigerians lavished money on owambe (parties) and used bottled water was an indication that Nigerians could pay more for fuel. Personally, I think more Nigerians now have cars compared to a few years ago, but I do not think it is due to any ‘concrete steps’ taken by the government. I don’t even know why the minister wants to take credit for more Nigerians buying more of Tokunbo cars anyway.

How we all have contributed to the failure of leadership in Nigeria

I wrote this article for The Scoop and it was published on September 17, 2014. You can find the link here

The first time I heard the word ‘nascent’ was sometime in 2000. The then Speaker of the House of Representatives, Salisu Buhari, had been accused of forging his age and certificates (due to his zeal to serve his country, he claimed), leading to his unceremonious ouster. As I watched the news, I saw as politicians took turn to provide explanations for the show of shame but one phrase was repeated several times: Nigeria’s nascent democracy. It became the most commonly used phrase whenever there was a mess in the polity as politicians readily pointed to it to explain their irrational behaviour, as if it was some sort of uncontrollable demon. Whether it was lawmakers throwing chairs at one another, the legislature and the executive getting involved in unnecessary public spats, politicians stealing public fund or downright rigging of elections, they had the same excuse.  When Lucky Igbinedion was presented for re-election as Edo State Governor in 2003, his dad was quoted as saying: “the first term was for learning. A child who failed an exam is entitled to a resit”. Yeah, classic case of our nascent democracy in action. It was the most abused word in Nigerian politics. 

Fast forward to 2014, and there are still excuses for the nonsense being dished out to Nigerians as governance. The only difference between what we used to have back then and now is that, while excuses used to be provided by politicians to explain their misgovernance, these days Nigerians do the job for them. My social media interaction has exposed me to the degree young Nigerians are willing to go to provide rationale for politicians’ failings, however ridiculous such rationale is. And that is the crux of this piece.

We have continually set the bar so low that politicians now know they only have to do the barest minimum (which they hardly do anyway, but that’s another matter entirely). It is particularly sad to see young Nigerians, who work in organisations where they are required to produce world class results, make excuses for elected public officials. So when you point out the fact that Stella Oduah bought two cars for N255 million, her supporters are quick to say she did well in her airport remodeling projects hence should be spared any enquiry. When you raise the issue of the plethora of corruption exposé involving this government, some of them traced to Aso Rock, his supporters say he should be praised for allowing the information get to the public in the first place. When you cry out about the annual flooding of Lagos during the rainy season without the government being able to find a lasting solution, government apologists say the issue is not peculiar to Lagos. None of the high profile criminals who got subsidy funds without lifting a litre of oil has been successfully prosecuted and jailed, but government apologists say the law should be allowed to take its (snail-speed) course. Presidential aides tell lies and make obscene terrorist allegations against private citizens but are not relieved of their jobs. The alleged sponsor of Boko Haram is a member of the ruling PDP and was recently seen with the President in full glare of the public. A serial pedophile is a member of the main opposition party. The Federal Minister who arranged a botched recruitment exercise that directly led to the deaths of at least 18 Nigerians was not reprimanded – he is still a serving minister. A former governor convicted and jailed by the UK Courts for stealing public funds in Nigeria got a presidential pardon by the Nigerian government and was part of the recent National Conference to discuss the future of Nigeria. A former public officer who was jailed for embezzling funds belonging to the Nigerian Ports Authority is an ever-present in our President’s political tours. The other day, I saw a Facebook advert suggesting ‘Honorable’ Ikuforiji might be interested in becoming Governor of Lagos. Farouk Lawan, he of the Cap Banking project, is still an honorable member of the House of Representatives, making laws for Nigerians. One cannot complain about all these anomalies without their supporters providing excuses of places where things are supposedly worse. The most depressing part of it is that these excuses are provided by Nigerian youths.

I will never understand why anyone would provide excuses for government failings, except when it is his/her job to do so. Nigerian politicians are some of the best (read: highest) paid in the world and like I have always argued on social media platforms, they must be subject to the highest possible standard of governance. A lot of Nigerians think it is foolhardy to expect Nigerian politicians to perform as well as their counterparts in more developed democracies. I do not understand. If I am subject to the same standard as fellow accountants in the US, I expect my President to be subject to the same standard as the US President. If a governor promised to build 50 schools during his election campaign but managed to build only 49, he has failed. Our grossly overpaid leaders have been getting away with murder, literarily, and we need to collectively put a stop to this.

The President (like his predecessors, it has to be said) has promised multiple dates for Nigerians to enjoy the long overdue stable electricity, none of which has been met. We need to let him know he’s run out of excuses. I hardly read motivational books but one of the best I’ve read is titled The Enemy Called Average, by John Mason. That is the problem confronting Nigerian youths now. We seem to have been programmed to accept mediocrity as a norm. Individually, we believe we can be better people but we don’t think we should expect our leaders to be better than they are. People have hailed the remodeling being done at the various airports but let’s face it – it’s nonsense. The MMA roofs are still leaking. I use the recently renovated Benin Airport a lot and I always have to fetch my checked-in luggage almost on the tarmac as there is no baggage carousel. We need to urgently do away with this mediocre mentality.

Next time you want to provide excuses for any public official (keyword is ‘any’, not just the President or your favorite Governor), pause and consider this scenario: You are the owner of a Company. You recently fired your underperforming Managing Director and appointed another one. You provide him with all the best working tools and a very generous remuneration, above the industry average. If he fails to meet the most basic target you both agreed prior to engaging him, will you provide him with excuses for his failure or give him a tongue-lashing and ask him to ensure he gets the job done, failing which he will get fired?

Whatever your answer is, that is what we need to start doing to our overfed politicians.

Ebola and Nigeria's response

I have to admit, the response to this Ebola threat by both the Federal and the (Lagos) state governments has been mostly impeccable. Information dissemination is impressive and potential cases of Ebola attack have been handled with sense. Even government officials that usually make stupid statements have been sensible, or at least quiet. Private firms have also been involved in massive sensitization of employees. I called a client last week and the guys didn't pick, only to call back several hours later to say they were in a sensitization training on Ebola. Of course, there have been the inevitable instances of fake cure suggested by Nigerians, from the unproven bitter kola to the grossly laughable salt bath.

However, the government needs to do more in terms of providing the required tools/equipment to prevent and control the spread or treatment of the disease. We need to start insisting that our research institutes live up to their callings rather than being salary disbursement centres. We also need to do a lot of work on border screening and this is not just at the airports - our land borders are more porous to import of communicable diseases.

Overall, we need to be more sensitive as a people to our environment. Ebola has killed 3 victims but in the past month, cholera has killed hundreds of people in the North and we haven't done much about it. Our government has to do a lot in this area. It may be another perfect opportunity for us to have another look at the healthcare industry as a whole. But I suppose that is a matter for another day.

 

For now though, we need to defeat Ebola. So far, the government has given me hope that it can lead a successful war against it.

Iyiola Omisore for Governor

As a Yoruba man, I find it very offensive that Iyiola Omisore, who was fingered by multiple sources as being a mastermind in the death of Bola Ige, has been presented by the PDP to contest as Governor of Bola Ige's home state, Osun.

 

Yet present at the ceremony to declare President Goodluck Jonathan's public support for Omisore was Bode George who was convicted and jailed for stealing public funds. Ekiti Governor-elect, Ayo Fayose and former House of Reps speaker, Dimeji Bankole (being touted as Ogun PDP governorship candidate), both of whom have long outstanding cases of corruption with the EFCC, also spoke at the rally. This should be worrying for Yorubaland.

 

I don't give a hoot about who wins Osun and I'm not a fan of Aregbesola. But why does the PDP like presenting criminals as political candidates in the South West? Don't they have people of impeccable characters that can be presented/supported to run for offices?

 

Away from the PDP, the Yoruba people need to do a critical self-assessment and wonder why people of very questionable character are taking foothold in the region's politics. Someone like Tinubu should not even have the audacity to proclaim himself a Yoruba servant, talk less of being a leader. We are clearly better than this. We are the people that produced Obafemi Awolowo.

 

We are better than this.

 

Re: World Cup 2014: Disgraceful ticket sales typical of deluded Nigeria fans

I came across this article written by popular sports journalist and latter-day celeb, Colin Udoh, in which he summarily criticized 'deluded' Nigerian football fans for not putting their money where their mouth is. He accused fans of playing to the gallery whenever they claim to love the Super Eagles and blamed them for the "disgraceful World Cup ticket sales" and the "laboriously slow sales of the new national team kit".

Make no mistake about it, the article is an utterly nonsensical piece and I expect senior sport journalists to at least let Mr Colin Udoh know this, even if only in private. It appears to me that people take the growing popularity of cable tv viewership as evidence that Nigerians now have disposable income. The writer could not have been more wrong.

An average group match at the world cup reportedly costs €90, which is about N19,000 in local currency, higher than the meagre national minimum wage. So what the writer essentially did was to blame Nigerians for being too poor to afford the tickets, but in a rather nice way.

And the writer found a subtle way to make a case for Amos Adamu, banned by FIFA for ticket racketeering. Adamu, the writer seems to suggest, would have been justified selling the tickets illegally since Nigerians can’t legally afford them anyway.

There is also the issue of marketing. I did not know of the tickets being on sale until a day or two ago and, even though I don’t plan going anyway, it is an indictment on the Nigeria Football Federation’s marketing department. I spoke with a senior colleague who was at the last World Cup and the past two Olympic Games. He told me he’s been trying to buy tickets online but has failed the balloting system twice, and that he was disappointed to learn yesterday tickets had been available all along in Nigeria. This again shows that not enough publicity was done by whoever it was that had responsibilities to sell tickets in Nigeria. Or maybe they are used to Amos Adamu’s modus operandi they didn’t bother to do a rigorous marketing.

The writer also criticized fans for not buying the new Super Eagles replica jerseys. Again, I do not understand what he seeks to achieve with this accusation. There is simply not enough information as to the availability of jerseys for sale, and I know some people who have signified their intention to purchase one when they become available. A friend sent a tweet to Adidas’ twitter representative on the availability of replicas for sale. The response was that fans would be intimated as soon as they are available. Common sense would also suggest that sale of these jerseys will pick up towards the world cup.

Fans’ apathy towards watching football matches live at local stadia is caused by a multitude of reasons, the bulk of which is due to poor management by league organisers. Security is mostly poor at league venues. Two of my friends had their handsets stolen in broad daylight when they went to watch some FA cup games at a stadium in Lagos last year.

In any case, the writer chose a perfect medium to air his ignorance-filled diatribe. These days it seems the western media loves nothing more than a negative story about Africa written by an African, however untrue. Nonsense has found a safe haven.